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| AP Photo--Craig Lassig |
It was Joshua Aubry Tomlin.
I’ve always had a soft spot for the kid from Tyler , TX , who is one of
eight players to make it to the Major Leagues as a product of Angelina College
in Lufkin , TX
The idea that Jim presented was to make a case for the
pitcher you selected as the best one of the rotation. There’s no reason to
insult anybody’s intelligence. I can’t make that case for Josh Tomlin. He
wasn’t blessed with a lightning bolt for an arm. He’s probably never
overpowered anybody or anything with his nondescript 6-foot-1, 190-pound frame.
Actually, that’s not true. Tomlin has overpowered a lot in
his quest to become a fixture in the Indians starting rotation. He missed well
over a year with Tommy John surgery and the subsequent recovery. He got back
just in time for his shoulder to act up prior to the 2015 season. Through all
of it, he persevered. We take Tommy John and the rehab process for granted
nowadays because of medical advances and the frequency with which the procedure
is done. It is a serious injury, a serious procedure, and a hard thing to
return from.
There’s always been something about Josh Tomlin, ever since
his Major League debut when he threw seven innings of one-run ball against the
New York Yankees on July 27, 2010. That lineup featured Derek Jeter,
still-productive Nick Swisher, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano,
Curtis Granderson, and Brett Gardner. He went up against former Indians CC
Sabathia and beat him.
I instantly respected his fortitude. Both testicular and
intestinal. This was a guy who knew exactly what he was. He didn’t care who you
were. He was throwing what he wanted. He was throwing it in the strike zone. He
was making you hit it. There was something really admirable about that. In the
seven years Tomlin has been in the league, we’ve seen the game become very
specialized, with extreme emphasis put on velocity. We’ve also seen the Moneyball craze overtake the game,
placing more importance than ever on drawing walks. We’ve seen major
statistical advances, ranging from the increasing popularity of sabermetrics to
Statcast and everything in between.
Josh Tomlin is still standing.
There was a moment that I remember very well that made me
realize how much admiration I have for Josh Tomlin. The Indians were in the
midst of their magical resurgence under first-year skipper Terry Francona. I
wasn’t there, but I was watching, as I almost always am. A number 43 jersey
came jogging out of the bullpen and I had tears in my eyes. I don’t know Josh
Tomlin. I’ve never met him. But, I remember that game on September 12, 2013.
Over the last two seasons, Tomlin has made 27 starts and
owns a 17-4 record with a 3.22 ERA. He’s not loved by the advanced metrics
because strikeouts and home runs are factored so heavily into the calculations.
It’s those home runs that stand out to many fans. Tomlin has given up 35
dingers in his last 173.1 innings and 105 in his 621 career innings. Sixty of
those have been solo home runs and another 32 have been two-run homers. Twenty
of those have been on the first pitch. Thirteen of those have been in full
counts.
It’s easy for me to shrug those off because context matters.
Like everything else, not all home runs are created equal. The three-run shots
and the grand slams are particularly back-breaking. Tomlin has allowed only 13
of those. First-pitch home runs happen. Full-count home runs happen. Home runs
happen. Minimizing the damage that home runs cause is Tomlin’s greatest skill.
Among the 182 pitchers with at least 600 innings pitched
from 2007-present, one of them has allowed more home runs than walks. You
guessed it, Josh Tomlin. Say what you will about the propensity for allowing
home runs, we’re talking about a very special level of control. Of that same
group of 182 pitchers, the only pitcher than matches Josh Tomlin in BB% (walks divided
by plate appearances) is Kevin Slowey. Cliff Lee is third. If you go back to
1960 (an arbitrary selection), with the same 600-inning qualifier, the only
pitchers with a lower BB% than Josh Tomlin are Lew Burdette, Dan Quisenberry,
and Bob Tewksbury.
The landscape of baseball has changed. Walks aren’t as frowned
upon for pitchers as they used to be because strikeouts have increased so much.
Strikeouts aren’t as frowned upon for hitters as they used to be because they
draw walks and have returned to hitting home runs after some Deadball-y years
during the steroid witch hunt.
In some ways, Josh Tomlin is a throwback. I’m a progressive
person when it comes to baseball. I like the advanced stats. I like the
evolution of the game. And, yet, I’m captivated by a pitcher like Tomlin. It doesn’t
hurt that the Indians’ improved defense allows a contact-based pitcher to not
only survive, but to thrive, though I was a fan long before that.
Truthfully, there’s no way of knowing what the future holds
for Tomlin. He’s not in the class of his rotation mates, but that’s okay. Not
many pitchers are. For now, he holds a place in this rotation and, quite
frankly, a place in this history of this franchise because of an elite level of
control. You have to go back to Addie Joss and Red Donahue to find walk rates
this good. You could throw Cliff Lee in that discussion, but his best control
years came after he left the Indians.
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