The #IndiansTwitter world was abuzz yesterday because
Fangraphs had the Indians as the best team in the American League from Friday
night through the end of the season with a .539 win percentage. Cynics will
scoff at this prediction because a .539 win percentage over the final 125 games
is only 62 more wins, which would put the Indians at 84-78, which is probably
not enough to get into the playoffs. Fangraphs, however, has their playoff odds
at 44 percent and 23 percent to win the division.
I, however, am going to paint an even prettier picture in
this week’s View from the Porch. The
Cleveland Indians are going to win the American League Central. The Indians
entered play on Friday night at 22-25, after a disastrous 14-23 start that left
them 9.5 games back in the AL Central standings. Things turned around with an 8-2 run that
knocked three games off of the deficit in the Central.
The nice thing about this somewhat bold prediction is that I
can back it with lots of evidence (all stats through 5/28). Let’s start with
the Indians and then explain why the teams ahead of the Indians are not going
to be able to maintain their current pace. In looking at the Indians, the first
thing that jumps off the page is that their starting rotation is elite. Even
with a collection of terrible outings from the fifth starter, the Indians
rotation leads the league in K/9 (by a lot), xFIP, SIERA, ERA-FIP, and K%. They
are third in FIP and third in K/BB. The high ERA is due to the team’s terrible
defense, which has yielded a .337 BABIP against. That’s the worst mark in the
league by .008 over the Nationals and .021 over the next closest AL team, the Yankees.
To take it another step further, the Indians rotation is
second in chase rate (hitters swinging at balls), first in swinging strike
rate, and has the second-best mark in percentage of swings and misses on
pitches inside the strike zone. This is with TJ House, Zach McAllister, Shaun
Marcum, and Bruce Chen combining for nine starts. Depending on what version of
TJ House comes back sometime in June, the Indians rotation could have five
above average starters, just like we expected.
What about the bullpen? The bullpen has been a mess, as we
all know. There are a lot of reasons to take a glass half full approach. There
aren’t a whole lot of negative stats that really stand out about the group.
They are 12th in ERA and closer Cody Allen has a 5.85 ERA. Scott Atchison has
been the worst pitcher out of the pen and he will be a DFA candidate shortly
after he returns from his sprained ankle. Of course, the ankle could have truly
been a problem. His home run rate should positively regress and he’s still not
walking people. There’s hope for him.
Zach McAllister has been used in more high-leverage
situations lately and that’s a benefit to the bullpen because it keeps Bryan
Shaw out of them. Shaw has fought with command, presumably from overuse over
the last two seasons, and has also had a velocity drop. Like Atchison , some positive regression should
come from his home run rate. He’s a wild card, but the swinging strike rate
hasn’t dropped a ton. There are reinforcements in Columbus in Shawn Armstrong and Kyle
Crockett, who will be back up sometime this season.
Offensively, the Indians started slow, but have come on
strong. Entering play on Friday, the Indians ranked sixth in wOBA and have
finally gotten their team slugging percentage up over .400. The concern for the
offense will be what happens when Jason Kipnis cools off, but Carlos Santana
and Michael Brantley have traded slumps in recent weeks and Yan Gomes is still
shaking off the rust in his return. The Indians have the highest walk rate in
the league and tied for the third-lowest strikeout rate in the league.
Fangraphs has a stat called BsR, which is essentially
baserunning runs above average. Would you be shocked to find out that the
Indians are second in that metric? It is a statistic that encapsulates all
baserunning situations, from the obvious stolen bases and caught stealings, to
taking extra bases on hits, to staying out of double plays. Only the Blue Jays
rank higher. The Astros, who have 15 more stolen bases than the Indians, are
third.
That leaves the elephant in the room – the defense. Apparently,
defense doesn’t matter to since Jerry Sands was called up for the weekend
instead of Tyler Holt or James Ramsey with Carlos Santana on the paternity
list. Santana should be back for the series in Kansas City , but with games at Safeco Field
and the spacious outfield of Kauffman Stadium, the Indians should have made a
defense-oriented call-up. In any event, the defense has a chance to improve if
the Indians use the more talented fielders in Triple-A over the course of the
season. The glass half full approach with the current defense is that the
Indians won 177 games from 2013-14 with the third-worst defense in MLB by
defensive runs saved and worst defense in UZR. So, there’s that.
Because the Indians put themselves in a 9.5-game hole, it’s
not only about them. It’s also about the teams that they are chasing. Guess
what? None of them are all that good.
Let’s start with the Minnesota Twins, the trendiest team in
the American League in the month of May. The Twins have a 93 wRC+ for the
season, which means that they are seven percent below league average
offensively (the Indians are at 110). The Twins are also a below average
baserunning team and are only two defensive runs saved better than the Indians
at -14.
The biggest thing for the Twins is that their starting
rotation is terrible. On the season, the Twins have a 3.99 ERA with a 4.12 FIP
and a 4.32 xFIP. No starting rotation in baseball strikes out fewer batters
than the Twins. Because they don’t strike out a lot of hitters, their 73.9 LOB%
is going to drop. Twins starters are 15-4 with a 3.55 ERA, 3.70 FIP, and a 4.07
xFIP in May. Their lone claim to fame is that they don’t walk many hitters.
But, let’s look a little bit deeper into the Twins. For one
thing, their Pythagorean win-loss, which is expected record based on run
differential, is three games worse than their actual 28-18 mark. The Twins are
15-5 against left-handed starters and just 13-13 against right-handed starters.
Teams will face a right-handed starter about 75 percent of the time. The Twins
are 19-7 against teams .500 or worse and just 9-11 against teams with a winning
record. They have played one of the weakest schedules in baseball so far.
How about the Royals? The reigning AL champs are 28-18, despite the four-game
losing streak that they carried into Friday’s game. If you want to talk about
bad starting rotations, look no further than the Royals. Their 4.52 ERA ranks
24th. Their 4.46 FIP is tied for 26th. Their 4.62 xFIP is tied for 29th. Those
numbers illustrate just how important Kansas
City ’s defense is to the starting rotation. Even with
that defense, their rotation is terrible. There’s no help coming from below in
the minors either.
Yordano Ventura, the de facto ace of the staff with James Shields out of the picture, has a 4.64 ERA with a 4.32 FIP and a 3.73 xFIP. Even if he lowers the home run rate and starts pitching to his capability, he’s a #2 starter at best with a projection like that. Edinson Volquez has carried this rotation with a 2.77 ERA, a 3.43 FIP, and a 4.40 xFIP. His .230 BABIP against is going to regress. He could very well post an ERA in the high 3s or even in the 4.00 range the rest of the way. Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie are replacement-level or worse.
As the season drags on, the Royals bullpen is going to be spent. After pitching deep into October last season, the Royals pen has averaged 3.1 innings of work per game already. They also have a team ERA of 1.84, which is unsustainable. They have a .228 BABIP against and a 3.36 FIP, 3.81 xFIP. Regression is coming for that group. Greg Holland is injured yet again and last season’s workload will catch up with them.
Offensively, the Royals have a team BABIP of .316, which has
gradually come down over the last week. They put a lot of balls in play and
almost never walk, so a high batting average is just going to happen. But,
after a power explosion early in the season, the Royals have hit just 16 of
their 34 home runs this month. Keep in mind that the season started a few days
into April, so May is a much larger sample size. This month, the Royals have
been 10 percent below league average offensively. The Indians have the highest
wRC+ in the American League in May at 124.
What about our hated rivals the Tigers? Well, Buck Farmer
was shelled on Thursday night as the rotation replacement for Kyle Lobstein.
Justin Verlander is still shelved with arm problems. The Tigers let 530.1
innings pitched walk away when they traded Rick Porcello for Yoenis Cespedes,
Drew Smyly for David Price, and let Max Scherzer go to free agency. Cespedes
and Price have been good for the Tigers, but they did not trade from a position
of strength. The Tigers have no starting pitching depth and they have been
reliant on league average arms like Shane Greene and Alfredo Simon. The Tigers
have a 4.15 starter ERA with a 3.84 FIP and a 4.07 xFIP. Unlike past seasons,
the Tigers are actually pretty good in defensive runs saved this season, so
they cannot use that crutch.
Shane Greene started on fire with 23 innings and one earned
run allowed. Since then, Greene has allowed 27 earned runs in 36 innings.
Alfredo Simon continues to spit in the face of advanced metrics with a 2.67
ERA, but a 3.60 FIP and a 4.22 xFIP. Simon did a similar thing in the first
half with Cincinnati
last season. His second half performance was a 4.52 ERA with a 4.34 FIP and a
4.27 xFIP. Oh, and lefties are batting .282/.336/.449 off of him, so the
Indians should be excited to face him again.
The biggest change for the Tigers has been their bullpen,
which went from one of the worst in the league to competent. They have a 3.00
ERA with a 3.76 FIP and a 4.10 xFIP. Regression should be coming for this
group, though bullpen stats are a little bit less reliable in that regard.
The Tigers offense is still among the best in the league
with a .328 wOBA and a .274/.340/.414 slash line. But, this is a team being
carried by its April performance. The Tigers posted a .286/.354/.443 slash with
a .344 wOBA in April. Their .343 BABIP in April has dropped to a .320 BABIP in
May. Their slash has fallen to .264/.330/.388 and a .315 wOBA. The Tigers are
actually below league average in May with a 99 wRC+. Victor Martinez has
struggled all season, but he was one of the few productive left-handed sticks
available to the Tigers and it looks like he could miss significant time.
The Tigers have 42 stolen bases, which ranks among the
league leaders, but they also have the most caught stealings with 19 and they
are actually tied for 29th in BsR at 6.8 runs below average. If they aren’t
going to hit for power, Brad Ausmus’s aggressive style is going to be a
detriment to this team. Their .330 BABIP should continue to regress, even
though they have a lot of guys that hit the ball hard.
Statistically, everything seems to line up for the Indians
and I don’t even have to mention the White Sox because, LOL. Every team goes
through slumps and bad stretches throughout a season. It gets magnified when it
happens early in the season as opposed to the middle. The Indians were 30-33
after 63 games in 2013. They started the season 26-17 and then lost 16 of 20.
That’s about as bad of a stretch as a team can have. They still won 92 games
and made the playoffs. Last season, the Indians were below .500 on August 10 at
58-59. They missed the playoffs by three games.
Sure, some things need to change and the defense has to
improve. However, even with the problems, the bad start, and the frustrating
losses, the statistics don’t lie. The Indians should be the best team in the AL
Central Division the rest of the way. Whether that’s enough to get into the
playoffs or not remains to be seen, but count me in the group that expects this
team to finish atop the division when it’s all said and done.
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